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How will the rising crude oil prices impact Indian oil companies?

02 Oct 2023 Zinkpot 215
  • Global crude oil prices, which have been firming up for the past few weeks on expectations of high demand and tightening supply, are at a nearly 10-month high.
  • Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures traded above $90 and $87 per barrel, respectively, for the first time since November 2022, as markets worried about a supply shortage after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their voluntary supply cuts to the end of the year.
  • The Indian basket of crude oil averaged $93.4 per barrel in September, as against $ 86.43 per barrel in August.  On September 28, it had risen further to $97.03 per barrel.
  • Analysts and market participants expect oil prices to firm up further, with some even talking about the possibility of Brent hitting $100 a barrel, over concerns of a possible supply deficit during the high winter demand season and indications that major oil producers could consider deeper production cuts going ahead. 
  • Brent has appreciated nearly 25 percent since mid-June due to a combination of some inter-dependent factors, which include production cuts by major oil-producing countries, signs of improved macroeconomic conditions and easing of inflation in major oil consumers like the US, and global oil demand touching record highs with expectations of further demand expansion.
  • India's government-owned oil marketing firms could be heading for a weaker second quarter as Brent crude prices rise and fuel retail prices remain steady. But, as crude oil prices are rising, some stocks will benefit from it.
    • ONGC: This company's profitability is highly correlated to international crude prices due to its presence in ONGC Videsh (which contributes significantly to the overall production). A rise in crude prices will have a positive impact on the company's profitability due to higher realization from its revenues.
    • Petronet LNG: Liquified Natural Gas prices move in line with the crude oil prices. A rise in crude increases the sale of LNG.
    • Indraprastha Gas (IGL): It is a leading city gas distributor. Higher crude oil prices for a long period of time would lead to a shift towards CNG as it is an economical and cleaner alternative fuel.
    • Oil India: This firm is engaged in the business of exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of crude oil, and production of LPG. Hence, the earnings of the company improve when the crude price increases.
  • The negative impact of oil prices on stock markets cannot be ignored. As oil prices increase, it triggers a domino effect on industries such as paints, cement, and oil marketing companies leading to reduced earnings and share prices. Additionally, indirect effects like rising goods transportation costs dent the margins of various sectors.
  • Oil marketing companies (OMC) like Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd (HPCL), and Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. are seeing a significant decline in their stock prices due to a sharp surge in crude oil prices.
     

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