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Economy and Finance

Economy and Finance

Extreme heat is coming, and here's how it can hurt India's economy

25 Feb 2023 Zinkpot 143

The Economic Times -  The calendar may tell you it's still winter, but the thermometer begs to differ. Officially, you are in February and spring may have just sprung, but it already feels like summer. February is witnessing abnormally high temperatures, which could indicate extreme heating summer this year. Read more

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These abnormal escalations in temperatures have undermining effects on India's economy:

  •  The food economy: The Rabi crops of wheat and mustard still need lower temperature to mature. If heat spoils these Rabi crops and El Nino reduces since rainfall this year, which can impact kharif crops such as rice and millets, expect inflation to rise.
  • The fall in crop yields will be a challenge for FMCG companies that produce food products as well as those whose products have large rural exposure.
  • Overall impact on the rural economy may hit prospects of companies that sell products in rural areas, such as tractors and motorcycles.
  •  The power sector:  The possibility of extreme heart weather also threatens India's power sector. Rising temperatures mean more use of appliances such as ACs and motors to pump out ground water, which makes electricity scarce, which in turn hits the working of industry too which needs power to operate.
  • More demand for electricity strains thermal plants. All hinges on supply of coal, which accounts for more than 70% of electricity generation in India. Stockpiles at power stations are currently well below a target of 45 million tonnes that the government asked to be met by the end of March.
  • Labour: A less visible impact of extreme heat is on labour productivity. And it's not just construction labour that has to work in the open. Nearly 75 per cent of India's workforce depends on heat-exposed labour, at times working in potentially life-threatening temperatures, says a World Bank report.
  • That means a big dip in labour productivity across various sectors of the economy. India may account for 34 million of the projected 80 million global job losses from heat-stress-associated productivity decline by 2030, the report says.
  • Long-term impacts of heat waves on public health, which is vital asset for the economy, manifest in major economic losses and missed opportunities. 
  • GDP: Extreme heat is responsible for huge loss of daylight working hours in India. As heat is projected to increase in future, it can slice off a big portion of India's GDP by bringing down productivity. Due to extreme heat, the average number of lost daylight working hours in India could increase to the point where between 2.5 and 4.5 percent of GDP could be at risk annually, shows an analysis by global management consulting firm, McKinsey & Company.
     
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