India's GDP growth for the fourth quarter of FY2024–25 is projected to be around 7%, driven by robust rural demand, increased government spending, and improved agricultural output. However, the full fiscal year growth is expected to settle at approximately 6.3%, slightly below earlier estimates.
Reuters projects 6.7% growth, citing stronger rural consumption and state expenditure, despite subdued private investment.
ICRA estimates 6.9% growth, supported by moderate industrial recovery and stable performance in services and agriculture.
Barclays forecasts 7.2% growth, attributing it to a surge in net indirect tax collections and improvements in the agriculture sector.
The consensus among economists places the full-year GDP growth at around 6.3%, down from the government's earlier estimate of 6.5%.
Factors contributing to the moderated growth include global trade uncertainties, proposed U.S. tariffs affecting business sentiment, and persistent weakness in private sector investment.
Retail inflation eased to a near six-year low of 3.16% in April 2025.
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to continue its mild rate-cutting cycle, with rates forecasted to drop to 5.50% by August.
Overall, while India's economy shows signs of resilience, especially in rural and agricultural sectors, challenges such as global trade tensions and weak private investment continue to pose risks to sustained growth.
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