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Why did Morgan Stanley upgrade India's rating?

10 Aug 2023 Zinkpot 157
  1. Global banking group Morgan Stanley has upgraded India’s rating to ‘Overweight’ saying that many reforms have taken place in the last few years. 
  2. An overweight rating means that India deserves a higher weightage in investments and it will perform better in the future.
  3. But why has India been upgraded?
  4. According to Morgan Stanley, India has experienced many changes in less than a decade. These include
    • Supply-side policy reforms such as a build-up in infrastructure,
    • Formalisation of the economy via GST,
    • Change in real estate regulations,
    • Digitalisation of social transfers,
    • A new bankruptcy law coupled with a sharp decline in corporate balance sheet leverage,
    • Flexible inflation targeting,
    • Focus on FDI,
    • Government support for corporate profits and multiyear highs on MNC sentiment.
  5. Another factor helping growth is the likely transition in India’s income pyramid, which is likely to invert in the coming decade, leading to a few hundred million people exiting poverty, it said. 
  6. Moreover Morgan Stanley said that the household debt/GDP in India is just 19% against 48% for China. Manufacturing and services PMIs have rallied consistently since the end of Covid restrictions in contrast to the rapid fade seen in China. As well, real estate transaction volumes and construction have broken out to the upside.
  7. All these factors bring out the positive sentiment in favour of India.

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